A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
